Robert Reich on Economic Recovery

Robert Reich says that the economy should see an economic upswing, if even a mild one, by the 2nd quarter of 2010. What's interesting is that his reasoning is predicated more on political cycles rather than economic theory. For example:

A president's party tends to lose seats in the first midterm elections, but Obama knows he can hold on to his majorities if he handles the economy well. Voters respond to economic trends more than to current levels -- to where the economy is heading rather than to where it is. Regardless of how the economy is doing in the months leading up to the midterm election in November 2010, voters will keep Democratic majorities in the House and Senate if they think the economy is on the mend.

That's why the $787 billion stimulus package was designed like a timed-release cold capsule. Stimulus spending will increase through to the end of 2009 and continue full blast in 2010. Although it's too small to restore the economy to full health by Election Day, the stimulus needs only to give the economy enough momentum by then to convince voters it's on the way to being restored.

Remember that Reich was one of those economists that actually warned us last March of recession. Can he do it again?

Let the betting begin. Where is the Intrade commodity market for this?