Who Wants to Bet on the Recession?

Earlier, I noted that Robert Reich predicts that we should see economic recovery by the second quarter of 2010.

Now, here is a poll taken by BBC/Globescan of people's expectations on the recession:



It's pretty even between those who think the recession will last for another two to three years (28%) and those who think it will end by the end of the year (26%).

By the way, Intrade has the likelihood of the United States reaching depression (defined as GDP declining by at least 10% from its peak value between Q4 2008 and Q4 2009) as 18%. The likelihood that the US will hit at least 9% unemployment rate, however, is a stunning 80%. (The current official unemployment rate was about 8.1% in February, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics).

So again, who wants to take bets?